Is the Concept of Altcoin Season Dead? Bitcoin’s Dominance Challenges Altcoins

Satoshi Nama

July 9, 2025
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3 min read

It’s the middle of 2025, and a lot of people who invest in cryptocurrencies are still asking the same question: Where is altcoin season?

Even though there were high hopes for altcoins earlier this year, they haven’t been able to keep up with Bitcoin’s speed.

People thought that altcoin season, when altcoins do better than Bitcoin, would start earlier in 2025. The rally still hasn’t come, though, even though it’s halfway through the year.

Bitcoin is still in the lead, while many altcoins are still behind. But the Altcoin Season Index has bounced back, which could be the first sign of hope.

What is the Altcoin Season Index showing right now?

The Altcoin Season Index has fresh information that might be a modest but vital hint that things are about to change.

A lot of people use the Altcoin Season Index to see where the market cycle is at. It analyzes the performance of the top 50 altcoins (not stablecoins or asset-backed tokens) versus Bitcoin over a 90-day period.

When the number is over 75, it’s usually the start of altcoin season; when it’s under 25, it’s Bitcoin season.

On the other hand, it is deemed a Bitcoin season when the price of Bitcoin continues to exceed the top 50 altcoins, excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens.

Why does Bitcoin dominance matter for altcoins?

As seen by its dominance, which is still above 65%, the price of Bitcoin is now still far higher than that of the top 50 altcoins.

Since Bitcoin is still receiving a lot of attention at the moment, this has greatly decreased the likelihood of an alt season. The fact that the price of Bitcoin has been outperforming Ethereum, which frequently leads the altcoin season, is even more worrisome.

The Altcoin Season Index is now at a low score of 27 as of this writing, according statistics from Blockchain Center. Even if it’s still rather low, this is a significant improvement above the low score of 11 that was obtained in June after the market meltdown.

This low index often indicates that the bottom may be in and that the downtrend is nearing its finish. However, traditionally, the index has fallen below 10 before the alt season starts, so there could still be some ways to go.

This is evident throughout the market’s history, since the altcoin index dropped below 8 in 2020 prior reaching the storied altcoin season of 2021. However, prior to the 2024 rally, it had a 4 score at the bottom in 2023.

Could Ethereum lead the next altcoin rally?

This low indicator does, however, indicate that the bottom is either in or will soon be in. To properly mark the start of the altcoin season, Ethereum would need to exceed Bitcoin and the dominance of Bitcoin would need to drop, probably approaching 40%.

It’s not altcoin season yet. But the fact that the Altcoin Season Index is recovering off its lows makes it look like the bottom for altcoins may finally be developing.

Whether it leads to a breakthrough surge later this year relies on important things like how strong Ethereum is compared to Bitcoin and how much Bitcoin dominates the market.

Right now, we have to wait. But for traders who pay attention to market cycles, things may slowly be coming together.