Despite Bitcoin’s recent pullback from its $124,500 peak, on-chain data and technical indicators suggest the market has not yet reached its cycle top. Leading analysts note that current conditions point to healthy consolidation, with robust support above the 20-week EMA and bullish potential targeting $150,000 by year-end.
Peak Indicators Remain Neutral
Prominent trader Merlijn The Trader highlights that all 30 widely monitored Bitcoin peak indicators, including the Puell Multiple and MVRV Z-Score, remain in neutral territory. The Puell Multiple sits at 1.39—well below danger levels historically tied to market tops—while the MVRV Z-Score also shows no signs of overheating. Previous Bitcoin cycle peaks were clearly signaled by multiple on-chain warning flashes, none of which are present now.
Recent volatility principally affected newer investors, many of whom are now selling at an average unrealized loss of -3.5%. Conversely, short-term holders (1–6 months) remain profitable with average gains of +4.5%. Analysts believe this purge of “weak hands” is transferring BTC to seasoned holders, building a more resilient support base for future price moves. On-chain analyst Amr Taha notes that the most recent $70 million BTC long liquidation on Binance reduced open interest and led to aggressive seller capitulation, further resetting market conditions.
Technical Support Points to Higher Targets
Bitcoin’s current decline remains above the 20-week EMA, around $108,000—a level that has provided reliable support throughout the bull run. Should BTC rebound from this mark, analysts expect renewed momentum toward its previous all-time high and potentially as high as $150,000. Conversely, a breakdown below this level may result in a deeper correction toward $95,300, near the 50-week EMA, which has historically marked local bottoms.
On-chain evidence and technical analysis collectively indicate Bitcoin’s $124K high is unlikely to be its ultimate peak for 2025. As the market consolidates and weaker hands exit, the path remains open for further upside, solidifying $150,000 as an achievable target for long-term bulls.
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