Bitcoin’s recent rally after the Jackson Hole symposium was short-lived, as on-chain data reveals broad distribution among BTC holders and growing risks for further downside. Currently, the $105,000 price level stands as the final stronghold against a deeper correction, with both seasonal factors and ETF fatigue contributing to the bearish outlook.
Holder Distribution Pressures Price Stability
Following a brief 3.91% surge to $117,300, Bitcoin reversed course, slipping to $110,600 on Monday. Analysis from Glassnode shows synchronized selling across wallet cohorts, with 10–100 BTC holders leading a wave of distribution. While smaller accounts (0–1 BTC and 1–10 BTC) are buying on dips below $107,000, mid-sized and large wallets above 1,000 BTC continue to reduce exposure.
The 100–1,000 BTC group is currently split, placing crucial support at the $105,000 mark. Realized price data underscores the gap between newer investors—whose cost basis sits near recent highs—and long-term holders averaging much lower entry points, around $90,000. If $105,000 fails as support, the next key demand zone could fall to the $92,000–$89,000 range, risking forced capitulation for recent buyers.
Seasonality and ETF Enthusiasm Wane
Bitcoin’s pullback is in line with historic seasonal weakness, especially during Asia’s “ghost month” from late August through September. Since 2017, ghost month declines have averaged 21.7%, with several notable double-digit drops. Technical analysis suggests a move down to the $105,000–$100,000 area aligns with these seasonal averages and support zones.
Additionally, analysts warn that spot Bitcoin ETF excitement may have faded, and organic demand remains a question amid structural risks. For instance, BTC/EUR has failed to register new highs, implying recent gains are more a product of US dollar weakness than fresh buying pressure.
Mounting distribution among Bitcoin holders, historic seasonal weakness, and waning ETF momentum place the $105,000 support level at the center of the current market debate. If this zone is lost, a significant correction toward $90,000 may be in store, reinforcing the need for vigilance during this volatile period.