The conventional four-year halving cycle that has traditionally characterized Bitcoin’s boom and bust phases may be coming to an end, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management. Hougan stated at a recent event that although Bitcoin still has potential, the notion that it must adhere to a strict, halving-driven pattern is out of date.
Reasons for the Possible End of the 4-Year Cycle
The halving event, which takes place roughly every four years and reduces the block reward in half, has played a significant role in the price history of Bitcoin. These halvings have frequently come before significant bull runs that were followed by abrupt corrections. Hougan, however, thinks that the dynamics of the market have shifted.
He declared, “We’re going beyond that structure.” When cryptocurrency was less liquid and mostly driven by retail, the cycles were helpful. However, macroeconomic trends, real-world use cases, and institutional funds now have a much greater impact.
Hougan argues that the price of Bitcoin may now be more sensitive to global financial shifts and mainstream investment flows than to supply-side halvings alone, given the rise of Bitcoin ETFs, enhanced regulatory clarity, and adoption by conventional financial institutions.
Prospects for the Upcoming Two Years
Hougan is optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory through 2026, even though he downplays the impact of the halving in the future. He anticipates that institutional adoption, growing geopolitical demand for neutral reserve assets, and growing acceptance of Bitcoin as digital gold will all contribute to its continued growth.
According to Bitwise, the market is transitioning from cycles of speculation to a more developed asset class that is driven by utility. This implies a greater focus on steady, long-term capital inflows rather than hype-driven parabolas.
The fire is far from extinguished, even though the halving may no longer be the spark it once was. Hougan believes that global capital finally taking cryptocurrency seriously will be more important to Bitcoin’s next significant rally than supply shocks.
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